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<span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-03-11:</b></span> By my valuation of Lichtman's keys in Biden vs. Trump, Trump will be reelected, as things stand now and can be expected to be in November.<br> | <span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-03-11:</b></span> By my valuation of Lichtman's keys in Biden vs. Trump, Trump will be reelected, as things stand now and can be expected to be in November.<br> | ||
<span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-05-18:</b></span> What a difference a couple of months can make! Now Biden v Trump is set and the pandemic has acted as a light turned on to illuminate globally what was only partially clear before. Looked at the 538 site and an article where it is wondering why people think Trump will win. They seem incapable of grasping that people would let Trump have another four years even if the best that can be said for Biden is that the claims of his assault accuser are probably false because she is a liar. That and he's not Trump. So naturally people think, and they are likely right that Trump's energized and now detached (from the formerly restraining GOP establishment) dead end coalition will prevail as a result of gerrymandering, an energized base and the opposite of that on the not even pseudo left party of Obama and the Clintons. So things have come full circle and the alternation I mentioned at the start last Bastille day is now the present locked in lesser evil rerun that will be forced in November. In fact an unforeseen possibility now looms of a Trump reelection with Democrats taking the Senate but not by enough to swing a second impeachment. Any foreseeable outcome now will only more or less highlight the decrepitude of the US state structure with the additional solvent of an American Chernobyl.<br> | <span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-05-18:</b></span> What a difference a couple of months can make! Now Biden v Trump is set and the pandemic has acted as a light turned on to illuminate globally what was only partially clear before. Looked at the 538 site and an article where it is wondering why people think Trump will win. They seem incapable of grasping that people would let Trump have another four years even if the best that can be said for Biden is that the claims of his assault accuser are probably false because she is a liar. That and he's not Trump. So naturally people think, and they are likely right that Trump's energized and now detached (from the formerly restraining GOP establishment) dead end coalition will prevail as a result of gerrymandering, an energized base and the opposite of that on the not even pseudo left party of Obama and the Clintons. So things have come full circle and the alternation I mentioned at the start last Bastille day is now the present locked in lesser evil rerun that will be forced in November. In fact an unforeseen possibility now looms of a Trump reelection with Democrats taking the Senate but not by enough to swing a second impeachment. Any foreseeable outcome now will only more or less highlight the decrepitude of the US state structure with the additional solvent of an American Chernobyl.<br> | ||
<span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-09-08:</b></span> Is POTUS a Bullshit Job, in David Graeber's sense? Maybe when it's occupied by an innocuous figure like an Eisenhower or Clinton or Obama or any normal occupant before the current one. Trump reflects the real character of a large swathe of the US population which feels it has nowhere to go but with him and if he loses as he likely will, Biden/Harris is not going to change them into something they aren't since <b><i>their</i></b> base shares much of that character as well and they are only opposed to it in a superficial partisan way. If he wins, then that character will become an existential issue for those that don't share it (the educated and progressive) and thus for the current nation state, as slavery was at its last such conjuncture. As Chris Hedges put it in a recent sermon where he says he will vote for the Green candidate, this year you get your choice of representative of the oligarchy. The out of power party is betting if they can punt with at least four more years of Clinton/Obama, by 2024 the demographic shift will be sufficiently complete in their favor that whatever form Trumpism takes by that time will be unable to have more than a regional effect. The unaddressed contradiction is that in any national election, about 30% of the electorate decides because 45% don't vote.</blockquote> | <span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-09-08:</b></span> Is POTUS a Bullshit Job, in David Graeber's sense? Maybe when it's occupied by an innocuous figure like an Eisenhower or Clinton or Obama or any normal occupant before the current one. Trump reflects the real character of a large swathe of the US population which feels it has nowhere to go but with him and if he loses as he likely will, Biden/Harris is not going to change them into something they aren't since <b><i>their</i></b> base shares much of that character as well and they are only opposed to it in a superficial partisan way. If he wins, then that character will become an existential issue for those that don't share it (the educated and progressive) and thus for the current nation state, as slavery was at its last such conjuncture. As Chris Hedges put it in a recent sermon where he says he will vote for the Green candidate, this year you get your choice of representative of the oligarchy. The out of power party is betting if they can punt with at least four more years of Clinton/Obama, by 2024 the demographic shift will be sufficiently complete in their favor that whatever form Trumpism takes by that time will be unable to have more than a regional effect. The unaddressed contradiction is that in any national election, | ||
about 30% of the electorate decides because 45% don't vote. | |||
<span style="background-color: black;"><b>2020-11-14:</b></span> Xi has acknowledged and all 50 states have been called for Biden so the single act of the Buck show comes to it's expected end with he and Putin awaiting events. This would seem like the point from which the redivision in the discussion commenced. | |||
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<center> | <center> | ||
<span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: black;color: lime;"><b>Aurodia Ventifol and Luleo Primoc present a musical interlude</b></span><br> | <span style="font-size: 12px;background-color: black;color: lime;"><b>Aurodia Ventifol and Luleo Primoc present a musical interlude</b></span><br> | ||
