FullEmps: Difference between revisions

From Cibernética Americana
Jump to navigationJump to search
← Older editNewer edit →
No edit summary
No edit summary
Line 12: Line 12:


The concept of full employment has so far been used in conjunction with the long run LRAS curve, where long run potential output is also the full employment level of output. Full employment does not mean that there is 'zero unemployment', but rather that all of the people willing and able to work have jobs at the current wage rate. Full employment is the quantity of labour employed when the labour market is in equilibrium.
The concept of full employment has so far been used in conjunction with the long run LRAS curve, where long run potential output is also the full employment level of output. Full employment does not mean that there is 'zero unemployment', but rather that all of the people willing and able to work have jobs at the current wage rate. Full employment is the quantity of labour employed when the labour market is in equilibrium.
=== "Structural" Unemployment ===


Some Economists estimate a "range" of possible unemployment rates. For example, in 1999, in the United States, the [[Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]] (OECD) gives an estimate of the "full-employment unemployment rate" of 4 to 6.4%.  This is the estimated "structural" unemployment rate, (the unemployment when there is full employment), plus & minus, the [[standard error]] of the estimate. (Estimates for other countries are also available from the OECD.) [http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/44/50/2086120.pdf]
=== [[Milton Friedman]] ===


Ideas associated with the [[Phillips curve]] questioned the possibility and value of full employment in a society: this theory suggests that full employment -- especially as defined normatively -- will be associated with positive [[inflation]]. The Phillips curve tells us also that there is no single unemployment number that one can single out as the "full employment" rate. Instead, there is a [[trade-off]] between unemployment and inflation: a government might choose to attain a lower unemployment rate but would pay for it with higher inflation rates.
=== NAIRU ===
In 1968, [[Milton Friedman]], leader of the [[monetarist]] school of economics, and [[Edmund Phelps]] posited a unique full employment rate of unemployment, what they called the "natural" rate of unemployment. But this is seen not as a normative choice as much as something we are stuck with, even if it is unknown. Rather than trying to attain full employment, Friedman argues that policy-makers should try to keep prices stable (a low or even a zero inflation rate). If this policy is sustained, he suggests that the economy will gravitate to the "natural" rate of unemployment automatically.


Friedman's view has prevailed so that in much of modern [[macroeconomics]], full employment means the lowest level of unemployment that can be ''sustained'' given the structure of the economy.  Using the terminology first introduced by [[James Tobin]] (following the lead of [[Franco Modigliani]]), this equals the '''N'''on-'''A'''ccelerating  '''I'''nflation '''R'''ate of '''U'''nemployment ([[NAIRU]]) when the real [[gross domestic product]] equals [[potential output]]. This concept is identical to the "natural" rate but reflects the fact that there is nothing "natural" about an economy.
Friedman's view has prevailed so that in much of modern [[macroeconomics]], full employment means the lowest level of unemployment that can be ''sustained'' given the structure of the economy.  Using the terminology first introduced by [[James Tobin]] (following the lead of [[Franco Modigliani]]), this equals the '''N'''on-'''A'''ccelerating  '''I'''nflation '''R'''ate of '''U'''nemployment ([[NAIRU]]) when the real [[gross domestic product]] equals [[potential output]]. This concept is identical to the "natural" rate but reflects the fact that there is nothing "natural" about an economy.
Line 25: Line 22:


The level of the NAIRU thus depends on the degree of "supply side" unemployment, i.e., joblessness that can't be abolished by high demand. This includes [[unemployment types#Frictional unemployment|frictional]], [[unemployment types#Structural unemployment|structural]], [[unemployment types#Classical unemployment|classical]], and [[unemployment types#Marxian unemployment|Marxian]] [[unemployment]].  
The level of the NAIRU thus depends on the degree of "supply side" unemployment, i.e., joblessness that can't be abolished by high demand. This includes [[unemployment types#Frictional unemployment|frictional]], [[unemployment types#Structural unemployment|structural]], [[unemployment types#Classical unemployment|classical]], and [[unemployment types#Marxian unemployment|Marxian]] [[unemployment]].  
The following should be understood in discussions of NAIRU: Governments that follow it are attempting to keep unemployment at certain levels (usually over four percent, and as high as ten or more percent) by keeping interest rates high. As interest rates increase, more bankruptcies of individuals and businesses occur, meaning less money to hire staff or purchase goods (the making and distributing of which requires workers, which means jobs). It might also be noted that the main cause of inflation is not high employment, but rather the ability of banks to make money with little to no backing with things of value (commodities such as gold and silver are some examples), thus flooding the market with money and decreasing the value of each dollar already issued in the process, assuming the economy has not kept up to this increase in issued loans. Economists such as Milton Friedman <ref>"A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability", 1948, American Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Jun., 1948), pp. 245-264</ref> and Dr. Ravi Batra have theorized ways that a modern economy could have low inflation and near full employment (as in close to 100% of those who are not students and are healthy enough to work, and who wish to work at any given point in time), as of yet these have yet to be widely disseminated through the press or introduced by most governments. Paul Martin - former finance minister and past Prime Minister of Canada - once held that full employment could be achieved, yet let go of this idea after gaining power. For more on this see the expose "Shooting the Hippo" by [[Linda McQuaig]], author and former columnist for many of Canada's top newspapers.
=== Phillips Curve ===
Ideas associated with the [[Phillips curve]] questioned the possibility and value of full employment in a society: this theory suggests that full employment -- especially as defined normatively -- will be associated with positive [[inflation]]. The Phillips curve tells us also that there is no single unemployment number that one can single out as the "full employment" rate. Instead, there is a [[trade-off]] between unemployment and inflation: a government might choose to attain a lower unemployment rate but would pay for it with higher inflation rates.
In 1968, [[Milton Friedman]], leader of the [[monetarist]] school of economics, and [[Edmund Phelps]] posited a unique full employment rate of unemployment, what they called the "natural" rate of unemployment. But this is seen not as a normative choice as much as something we are stuck with, even if it is unknown. Rather than trying to attain full employment, Friedman argues that policy-makers should try to keep prices stable (a low or even a zero inflation rate). If this policy is sustained, he suggests that the economy will gravitate to the "natural" rate of unemployment automatically.
=== "Structural" Unemployment ===
Some Economists estimate a "range" of possible unemployment rates. For example, in 1999, in the United States, the [[Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]] (OECD) gives an estimate of the "full-employment unemployment rate" of 4 to 6.4%.  This is the estimated "structural" unemployment rate, (the unemployment when there is full employment), plus & minus, the [[standard error]] of the estimate. (Estimates for other countries are also available from the OECD.) [http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/44/50/2086120.pdf]
=== "Ideal" Unemployment ===


An alternative, more normative, definition (used by some labor economists) would see "full employment" as the attainment of the ''ideal'' unemployment rate, where the types of unemployment that reflect labor-market inefficiency (such as [[unemployment types#Structural unemployment| structural unemployment]]) do not exist. Only some ''frictional'' unemployment would exist, where workers are temporarily searching for new jobs. For example, Lord [[William Beveridge]] defined "full employment" as where the number of unemployed workers equaled the number of job vacancies available. He preferred that the economy be kept above that full employment level in order to allow maximum economic production.
An alternative, more normative, definition (used by some labor economists) would see "full employment" as the attainment of the ''ideal'' unemployment rate, where the types of unemployment that reflect labor-market inefficiency (such as [[unemployment types#Structural unemployment| structural unemployment]]) do not exist. Only some ''frictional'' unemployment would exist, where workers are temporarily searching for new jobs. For example, Lord [[William Beveridge]] defined "full employment" as where the number of unemployed workers equaled the number of job vacancies available. He preferred that the economy be kept above that full employment level in order to allow maximum economic production.


Long before Friedman and Phelps, Abba Lerner (1951) developed a version of the NAIRU. Unlike the current view, he saw a range of "full employment" unemployment rates. He distinguished between "high" full employment (the lowest sustainable unemployment under [[incomes policies]]) and "low" full employment (the lowest sustainable unemployment rate without these policies).  
Long before Friedman and Phelps, Abba Lerner (1951) developed a version of the NAIRU. Unlike the current view, he saw a range of "full employment" unemployment rates. He distinguished between "high" full employment (the lowest sustainable unemployment under [[incomes policies]]) and "low" full employment (the lowest sustainable unemployment rate without these policies).  
== Technical Issues ==


Whatever the definition of full employment, it is difficult to discover exactly what unemployment rate it corresponds to. In the United States, for example, the economy saw stable inflation ''despite'' low unemployment during the late 1990s, contradicting most economists' estimates of the NAIRU.
Whatever the definition of full employment, it is difficult to discover exactly what unemployment rate it corresponds to. In the United States, for example, the economy saw stable inflation ''despite'' low unemployment during the late 1990s, contradicting most economists' estimates of the NAIRU.
Line 38: Line 50:
The active pursuit of national full [[employment]] through interventionist government policies is associated with [[Keynesian economics]] and marked the postwar agenda of many Western nations, until the [[stagflation]] of the [[1970s]]. [[Australia]] was the first country in the world in which full employment in a free society was made official policy by its [[government]]. On [[May 30]], [[1945]], The [[Australian Labor Party]] [[Prime Minister of Australia|Prime Minister]] [[John Curtin]] and his Employment Minister [[John Dedman]] proposed a [[white paper]] in the [[Australian House of Representatives]] titled [[[[White Paper on Full Employment|''Full Employment In Australia'']], the first time any government apart from [[totalitarianism|totalitarian]] regimes had unequivocally committed itself to providing work for any person who was willing and able to work. Conditions of full employment lasted in Australia from [[1941]] to [[1975]].
The active pursuit of national full [[employment]] through interventionist government policies is associated with [[Keynesian economics]] and marked the postwar agenda of many Western nations, until the [[stagflation]] of the [[1970s]]. [[Australia]] was the first country in the world in which full employment in a free society was made official policy by its [[government]]. On [[May 30]], [[1945]], The [[Australian Labor Party]] [[Prime Minister of Australia|Prime Minister]] [[John Curtin]] and his Employment Minister [[John Dedman]] proposed a [[white paper]] in the [[Australian House of Representatives]] titled [[[[White Paper on Full Employment|''Full Employment In Australia'']], the first time any government apart from [[totalitarianism|totalitarian]] regimes had unequivocally committed itself to providing work for any person who was willing and able to work. Conditions of full employment lasted in Australia from [[1941]] to [[1975]].


The following should be understood in discussions of NAIRU: Governments that follow it are attempting to keep unemployment at certain levels (usually over four percent, and as high as ten or more percent) by keeping interest rates high. As interest rates increase, more bankruptcies of individuals and businesses occur, meaning less money to hire staff or purchase goods (the making and distributing of which requires workers, which means jobs). It might also be noted that the main cause of inflation is not high employment, but rather the ability of banks to make money with little to no backing with things of value (commodities such as gold and silver are some examples), thus flooding the market with money and decreasing the value of each dollar already issued in the process, assuming the economy has not kept up to this increase in issued loans. Economists such as Milton Friedman <ref>"A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability", 1948, American Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 3 (Jun., 1948), pp. 245-264</ref> and Dr. Ravi Batra have theorized ways that a modern economy could have low inflation and near full employment (as in close to 100% of those who are not students and are healthy enough to work, and who wish to work at any given point in time), as of yet these have yet to be widely disseminated through the press or introduced by most governments. Paul Martin - former finance minister and past Prime Minister of Canada - once held that full employment could be achieved, yet let go of this idea after gaining power. For more on this see the expose "Shooting the Hippo" by [[Linda McQuaig]], author and former columnist for many of Canada's top newspapers.


===External sources===
===External sources===
Retrieved from "https://eg.meansofproduction.biz/eg/index.php/FullEmps"